<p>Variations in the Proportion between the respective Values of Gold and
Silver.</p>
<p>Before the discovery of the mines of America, the value of fine gold to
fine silver was regulated in the different mines of Europe, between the
proportions of one to ten and one to twelve; that is, an ounce of fine
gold was supposed to be worth from ten to twelve ounces of fine silver.
About the middle of the last century, it came to be regulated, between the
proportions of one to fourteen and one to fifteen; that is, an ounce of
fine gold came to be supposed worth between fourteen and fifteen ounces of
fine silver. Gold rose in its nominal value, or in the quantity of silver
which was given for it. Both metals sunk in their real value, or in the
quantity of labour which they could purchase; but silver sunk more than
gold. Though both the gold and silver mines of America exceeded in
fertility all those which had ever been known before, the fertility of the
silver mines had, it seems, been proportionally still greater than that of
the gold ones.</p>
<p>The great quantities of silver carried annually from Europe to India,
have, in some of the English settlements, gradually reduced the value of
that metal in proportion to gold. In the mint of Calcutta, an ounce of
fine gold is supposed to be worth fifteen ounces of fine silver, in the
same manner as in Europe. It is in the mint, perhaps, rated too high for
the value which it bears in the market of Bengal. In China, the proportion
of gold to silver still continues as one to ten, or one to twelve. In
Japan, it is said to be as one to eight.</p>
<p>The proportion between the quantities of gold and silver annually imported
into Europe, according to Mr Meggens' account, is as one to twenty-two
nearly; that is, for one ounce of gold there are imported a little more
than twenty-two ounces of silver. The great quantity of silver sent
annually to the East Indies reduces, he supposes, the quantities of those
metals which remain in Europe to the proportion of one to fourteen or
fifteen, the proportion of their values. The proportion between their
values, he seems to think, must necessarily be the same as that between
their quantities, and would therefore be as one to twenty-two, were it not
for this greater exportation of silver.</p>
<p>But the ordinary proportion between the respective values of two
commodities is not necessarily the same as that between the quantities of
them which are commonly in the market. The price of an ox, reckoned at ten
guineas, is about three score times the price of a lamb, reckoned at 3s.
6d. It would be absurd, however, to infer from thence, that there are
commonly in the market three score lambs for one ox; and it would be just
as absurd to infer, because an ounce of gold will commonly purchase from
fourteen or fifteen ounces of silver, that there are commonly in the
market only fourteen or fifteen ounces of silver for one ounce of gold.</p>
<p>The quantity of silver commonly in the market, it is probable, is much
greater in proportion to that of gold, than the value of a certain
quantity of gold is to that of an equal quantity of silver. The whole
quantity of a cheap commodity brought to market is commonly not only
greater, but of greater value, than the whole quantity of a dear one. The
whole quantity of bread annually brought to market, is not only greater,
but of greater value, than the whole quantity of butcher's meat; the whole
quantity of butcher's meat, than the whole quantity of poultry; and the
whole quantity of poultry, than the whole quantity of wild fowl. There are
so many more purchasers for the cheap than for the dear commodity, that,
not only a greater quantity of it, but a greater value can commonly be
disposed of. The whole quantity, therefore, of the cheap commodity, must
commonly be greater in proportion to the whole quantity of the dear one,
than the value of a certain quantity of the dear one, is to the value of
an equal quantity of the cheap one. When we compare the precious metals
with one another, silver is a cheap, and gold a dear commodity. We ought
naturally to expect, therefore, that there should always be in the market,
not only a greater quantity, but a greater value of silver than of gold.
Let any man, who has a little of both, compare his own silver with his
gold plate, and he will probably find, that not only the quantity, but the
value of the former, greatly exceeds that of the latter. Many people,
besides, have a good deal of silver who have no gold plate, which, even
with those who have it, is generally confined to watch-cases, snuff-boxes,
and such like trinkets, of which the whole amount is seldom of great
value. In the British coin, indeed, the value of the gold preponderates
greatly, but it is not so in that of all countries. In the coin of some
countries, the value of the two metals is nearly equal. In the Scotch
coin, before the union with England, the gold preponderated very little,
though it did somewhat {See Ruddiman's Preface to Anderson's Diplomata,
etc. Scotiae.}, as it appears by the accounts of the mint. In the coin of
many countries the silver preponderates. In France, the largest sums are
commonly paid in that metal, and it is there difficult to get more gold
than what is necessary to carry about in your pocket. The superior value,
however, of the silver plate above that of the gold, which takes place in
all countries, will much more than compensate the preponderancy of the
gold coin above the silver, which takes place only in some countries.</p>
<p>Though, in one sense of the word, silver always has been, and probably
always will be, much cheaper than gold; yet, in another sense, gold may
perhaps, in the present state of the Spanish market, be said to be
somewhat cheaper than silver. A commodity may be said to be dear or cheap
not only according to the absolute greatness or smallness of its usual
price, but according as that price is more or less above the lowest for
which it is possible to bring it to market for any considerable time
together. This lowest price is that which barely replaces, with a moderate
profit, the stock which must be employed in bringing the commodity
thither. It is the price which affords nothing to the landlord, of which
rent makes not any component part, but which resolves itself altogether
into wages and profit. But, in the present state of the Spanish market,
gold is certainly somewhat nearer to this lowest price than silver. The
tax of the king of Spain upon gold is only one-twentieth part of the
standard metal, or five per cent.; whereas his tax upon silver amounts to
one-tenth part of it, or to ten per cent. In these taxes, too, it has
already been observed, consists the whole rent of the greater part of the
gold and silver mines of Spanish America; and that upon gold is still
worse paid than that upon silver. The profits of the undertakers of gold
mines, too, as they more rarely make a fortune, must, in general, be still
more moderate than those of the undertakers of silver mines. The price of
Spanish gold, therefore, as it affords both less rent and less profit,
must, in the Spanish market, be somewhat nearer to the lowest price for
which it is possible to bring it thither, than the price of Spanish
silver. When all expenses are computed, the whole quantity of the one
metal, it would seem, cannot, in the Spanish market, be disposed of so
advantageously as the whole quantity of the other. The tax, indeed, of the
king of Portugal upon the gold of the Brazils, is the same with the
ancient tax of the king of Spain upon the silver of Mexico and Peru; or
one-fifth part of the standard metal. It may therefore be uncertain,
whether, to the general market of Europe, the whole mass of American gold
comes at a price nearer to the lowest for which it is possible to bring it
thither, than the whole mass of American silver.</p>
<p>The price of diamonds and other precious stones may, perhaps, be still
nearer to the lowest price at which it is possible to bring them to
market, than even the price of gold.</p>
<p>Though it is not very probable that any part of a tax, which is not only
imposed upon one of the most proper subjects of taxation, a mere luxury
and superfluity, but which affords so very important a revenue as the tax
upon silver, will ever be given up as long as it is possible to pay it;
yet the same impossibility of paying it, which, in 1736. made it necessary
to reduce it from one-fifth to one-tenth, may in time make it necessary to
reduce it still further; in the same manner as it made it necessary to
reduce the tax upon gold to one-twentieth. That the silver mines of
Spanish America, like all other mines, become gradually more expensive in
the working, on account of the greater depths at which it is necessary to
carry on the works, and of the greater expense of drawing out the water,
and of supplying them with fresh air at those depths, is acknowledged by
everybody who has inquired into the state of those mines.</p>
<p>These causes, which are equivalent to a growing scarcity of silver (for a
commodity may be said to grow scarcer when it becomes more difficult and
expensive to collect a certain quantity of it), must, in time, produce one
or other of the three following events: The increase of the expense must
either, first, be compensated altogether by a proportionable increase in
the price of the metal; or, secondly, it must be compensated altogether by
a proportionable diminution of the tax upon silver; or, thirdly, it must
be compensated partly by the one and partly by the other of those two
expedients. This third event is very possible. As gold rose in its price
in proportion to silver, notwithstanding a great diminution of the tax
upon gold, so silver might rise in its price in proportion to labour and
commodities, notwithstanding an equal diminution of the tax upon silver.</p>
<p>Such successive reductions of the tax, however, though they may not
prevent altogether, must certainly retard, more or less, the rise of the
value of silver in the European market. In consequence of such reductions,
many mines may be wrought which could not be wrought before, because they
could not afford to pay the old tax; and the quantity of silver annually
brought to market, must always be somewhat greater, and, therefore, the
value of any given quantity somewhat less, than it otherwise would have
been. In consequence of the reduction in 1736, the value of silver in the
European market, though it may not at this day be lower than before that
reduction, is, probably, at least ten per cent. lower than it would have
been, had the court of Spain continued to exact the old tax. That,
notwithstanding this reduction, the value of silver has, during the course
of the present century, begun to rise somewhat in the European market, the
facts and arguments which have been alleged above, dispose me to believe,
or more properly to suspect and conjecture; for the best opinion which I
can form upon this subject, scarce, perhaps, deserves the name of belief.
The rise, indeed, supposing there has been any, has hitherto been so very
small, that after all that has been said, it may, perhaps, appear to many
people uncertain, not only whether this event has actually taken place,
but whether the contrary may not have taken place, or whether the value of
silver may not still continue to fall in the European market.</p>
<p>It must be observed, however, that whatever may be the supposed annual
importation of gold and silver, there must be a certain period at which
the annual consumption of those metals will be equal to that annual
importation. Their consumption must increase as their mass increases, or
rather in a much greater proportion. As their mass increases, their value
diminishes. They are more used, and less cared for, and their consumption
consequently increases in a greater proportion than their mass. After a
certain period, therefore, the annual consumption of those metals must, in
this manner, become equal to their annual importation, provided that
importation is not continually increasing; which, in the present times, is
not supposed to be the case.</p>
<p>If, when the annual consumption has become equal to the annual
importation, the annual importation should gradually diminish, the annual
consumption may, for some time, exceed the annual importation. The mass of
those metals may gradually and insensibly diminish, and their value
gradually and insensibly rise, till the annual importation becoming again
stationary, the annual consumption will gradually and insensibly
accommodate itself to what that annual importation can maintain.</p>
<p>Grounds of the suspicion that the Value of Silver still continues to
decrease.</p>
<p>The increase of the wealth of Europe, and the popular notion, that as the
quantity of the precious metals naturally increases with the increase of
wealth, so their value diminishes as their quantity increases, may,
perhaps, dispose many people to believe that their value still continues
to fall in the European market; and the still gradually increasing price
of many parts of the rude produce of land may confirm them still farther
in this opinion.</p>
<p>That that increase in the quantity of the precious metals, which arises in
any country from the increase of wealth, has no tendency to diminish their
value, I have endeavoured to shew already. Gold and silver naturally
resort to a rich country, for the same reason that all sorts of luxuries
and curiosities resort to it; not because they are cheaper there than in
poorer countries, but because they are dearer, or because a better price
is given for them. It is the superiority of price which attracts them; and
as soon as that superiority ceases, they necessarily cease to go thither.</p>
<p>If you except corn, and such other vegetables as are raised altogether by
human industry, that all other sorts of rude produce, cattle, poultry,
game of all kinds, the useful fossils and minerals of the earth, etc.
naturally grow dearer, as the society advances in wealth and improvement,
I have endeavoured to shew already. Though such commodities, therefore,
come to exchange for a greater quantity of silver than before, it will not
from thence follow that silver has become really cheaper, or will purchase
less labour than before; but that such commodities have become really
dearer, or will purchase more labour than before. It is not their nominal
price only, but their real price, which rises in the progress of
improvement. The rise of their nominal price is the effect, not of any
degradation of the value of silver, but of the rise in their real price.</p>
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