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<h2> SECT. II. OF PROBABILITY, AND OF THE IDEA OF CAUSE AND EFFECT. </h2>
<p>This is all I think necessary to observe concerning those four relations,
which are the foundation of science; but as to the other three, which
depend not upon the idea, and may be absent or present even while that
remains the same, it will be proper to explain them more particularly.
These three relations are identity, the situations in time and place, and
causation.</p>
<p>All kinds of reasoning consist in nothing but a comparison, and a
discovery of those relations, either constant or inconstant, which two or
more objects bear to each other. This comparison we may make, either when
both the objects are present to the senses, or when neither of them is
present, or when only one. When both the objects are present to the senses
along with the relation, we call this perception rather than reasoning;
nor is there in this case any exercise of the thought, or any action,
properly speaking, but a mere passive admission of the impressions through
the organs of sensation. According to this way of thinking, we ought not
to receive as reasoning any of the observations we may make concerning
identity, and the relations of time and place; since in none of them the
mind can go beyond what is immediately present to the senses, either to
discover the real existence or the relations of objects. It is only
causation, which produces such a connexion, as to give us assurance from
the existence or action of one object, that it was followed or preceded by
any other existence or action; nor can the other two relations be ever
made use of in reasoning, except so far as they either affect or are
affected by it. There is nothing in any objects to perswade us, that they
are either always remote or always contiguous; and when from experience
and observation we discover, that their relation in this particular is
invariable, we, always conclude there is some secret cause, which
separates or unites them. The same reasoning extends to identity. We
readily suppose an object may continue individually the same, though
several times absent from and present to the senses; and ascribe to it an
identity, notwithstanding the interruption of the perception, whenever we
conclude, that if we had kept our eye or hand constantly upon it, it would
have conveyed an invariable and uninterrupted perception. But this
conclusion beyond the impressions of our senses can be founded only on the
connexion of cause and effect; nor can we otherwise have any security,
that the object is not changed upon us, however much the new object may
resemble that which was formerly present to the senses. Whenever we
discover such a perfect resemblance, we consider, whether it be common in
that species of objects; whether possibly or probably any cause coued
operate in producing the change and resemblance; and according as we
determine concerning these causes and effects, we form our judgment
concerning the identity of the object.</p>
<p>Here then it appears, that of those three relations, which depend not upon
the mere ideas, the only one, that can be traced beyond our senses and
informs us of existences and objects, which we do not see or feel, is
causation. This relation, therefore, we shall endeavour to explain fully
before we leave the subject of the understanding.</p>
<p>To begin regularly, we must consider the idea of causation, and see from
what origin it is derived. It is impossible to reason justly, without
understanding perfectly the idea concerning which we reason; and it is
impossible perfectly to understand any idea, without tracing it up to its
origin, and examining that primary impression, from which it arises. The
examination of the impression bestows a clearness on the idea; and the
examination of the idea bestows a like clearness on all our reasoning.</p>
<p>Let us therefore cast our eye on any two objects, which we call cause and
effect, and turn them on all sides, in order to find that impression,
which produces an idea, of such prodigious consequence. At first sight I
perceive, that I must not search for it in any of the particular qualities
of the objects; since which-ever of these qualities I pitch on, I find
some object, that is not possessed of it, and yet falls under the
denomination of cause or effect. And indeed there is nothing existent,
either externally or internally, which is not to be considered either as a
cause or an effect; though it is plain there is no one quality, which
universally belongs to all beings, and gives them a title to that
denomination.</p>
<p>The idea, then, of causation must be derived from some relation among
objects; and that relation we must now endeavour to discover. I find in
the first place, that whatever objects are considered as causes or
effects, are contiguous; and that nothing can operate in a time or place,
which is ever so little removed from those of its existence. Though
distant objects may sometimes seem productive of each other, they are
commonly found upon examination to be linked by a chain of causes, which
are contiguous among themselves, and to the distant objects; and when in
any particular instance we cannot discover this connexion, we still
presume it to exist. We may therefore consider the relation of CONTIGUITY
as essential to that of causation; at least may suppose it such, according
to the general opinion, till we can find a more [Part IV. Sect. 5.] proper
occasion to clear up this matter, by examining what objects are or are not
susceptible of juxtaposition and conjunction.</p>
<p>The second relation I shall observe as essential to causes and effects, is
not so universally acknowledged, but is liable to some controversy. It is
that of PRIORITY Of time in the cause before the effect. Some pretend that
it is not absolutely necessary a cause should precede its effect; but that
any object or action, in the very first moment of its existence, may exert
its productive quality, and give rise to another object or action,
perfectly co-temporary with itself. But beside that experience in most
instances seems to contradict this opinion, we may establish the relation
of priority by a kind of inference or reasoning. It is an established
maxim both in natural and moral philosophy, that an object, which exists
for any time in its full perfection without producing another, is not its
sole cause; but is assisted by some other principle, which pushes it from
its state of inactivity, and makes it exert that energy, of which it was
secretly possest. Now if any cause may be perfectly co-temporary with its
effect, it is certain, according to this maxim, that they must all of them
be so; since any one of them, which retards its operation for a single
moment, exerts not itself at that very individual time, in which it might
have operated; and therefore is no proper cause. The consequence of this
would be no less than the destruction of that succession of causes, which
we observe in the world; and indeed, the utter annihilation of time. For
if one cause were co-temporary with its effect, and this effect with its
effect, and so on, it is plain there would be no such thing as succession,
and all objects must be co-existent.</p>
<p>If this argument appear satisfactory, it is well. If not, I beg the reader
to allow me the same liberty, which I have used in the preceding case, of
supposing it such. For he shall find, that the affair is of no great
importance.</p>
<p>Having thus discovered or supposed the two relations of contiguity and
succession to be essential to causes and effects, I find I am stopt short,
and can proceed no farther in considering any single instance of cause and
effect. Motion in one body is regarded upon impulse as the cause of motion
in another. When we consider these objects with utmost attention, we find
only that the one body approaches the other; and that the motion of it
precedes that of the other, but without any, sensible interval. It is in
vain to rack ourselves with farther thought and reflection upon this
subject. We can go no farther in considering this particular instance.</p>
<p>Should any one leave this instance, and pretend to define a cause, by
saying it is something productive of another, it is evident he would say
nothing. For what does he mean by production? Can he give any definition
of it, that will not be the same with that of causation? If he can; I
desire it may be produced. If he cannot; he here runs in a circle, and
gives a synonimous term instead of a definition.</p>
<p>Shall we then rest contented with these two relations of contiguity and
succession, as affording a complete idea of causation? By, no means. An
object may be contiguous and prior to another, without being considered as
its cause. There is a NECESSARY CONNEXION to be taken into consideration;
and that relation is of much greater importance, than any of the other two
above-mentioned.</p>
<p>Here again I turn the object on all sides, in order to discover the nature
of this necessary connexion, and find the impression, or impressions, from
which its idea may be derived. When I cast my eye on the known Qualities
of objects, I immediately discover that the relation of cause and effect
depends not in the least on them. When I consider their relations, I can
find none but those of contiguity and succession; which I have already
regarded as imperfect and unsatisfactory. Shall the despair of success
make me assert, that I am here possest of an idea, which is not preceded
by any similar impression? This would be too strong a proof of levity and
inconstancy; since the contrary principle has been already so firmly
established, as to admit of no farther doubt; at least, till we have more
fully examined the present difficulty.</p>
<p>We must, therefore, proceed like those, who being in search of any thing,
that lies concealed from them, and not finding it in the place they
expected, beat about all the neighbouring fields, without any certain view
or design, in hopes their good fortune will at last guide them to what
they search for. It is necessary for us to leave the direct survey of this
question concerning the nature of that necessary connexion, which enters
into our idea of cause and effect; and endeavour to find some other
questions, the examination of which will perhaps afford a hint, that may
serve to clear up the present difficulty. Of these questions there occur
two, which I shall proceed to examine, viz.</p>
<p>First, For what reason we pronounce it necessary, that every thing whose
existence has a beginning, should also have a cause.</p>
<p>Secondly, Why we conclude, that such particular causes must necessarily
have such particular effects; and what is the nature of that inference we
draw from the one to the other, and of the belief we repose in it?</p>
<p>I shall only observe before I proceed any farther, that though the ideas
of cause and effect be derived from the impressions of reflection as well
as from those of sensation, yet for brevity's sake, I commonly mention
only the latter as the origin of these ideas; though I desire that
whatever I say of them may also extend to the former. Passions are
connected with their objects and with one another; no less than external
bodies are connected together. The same relation, then, of cause and
effect, which belongs to one, must be common to all of them.</p>
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