<p><SPAN name="link2H_4_0201" id="link2H_4_0201"></SPAN></p>
<h2> LETTER CXCIX </h2>
<h3> LONDON, March 15, 1754 </h3>
<p>MY DEAR FRIEND: We are here in the midst of a second winter; the cold is
more severe, and the snow deeper, than they were in the first. I presume,
your weather in Germany is not much more gentle and, therefore, I hope
that you are quietly and warmly fixed at some good town: and will not risk
a second burial in the snow, after your late fortunate resurrection out of
it. Your letters, I suppose, have not been able to make their way through
the ice; for I have received none from you since that of the 12th of
February, from Ratisbon. I am the more uneasy at this state of ignorance,
because I fear that you may have found some subsequent inconveniences from
your overturn, which you might not be aware of at first.</p>
<p>The curtain of the political theatre was partly drawn up the day before
yesterday, and exhibited a scene which the public in general did not
expect; the Duke of Newcastle was declared First Lord Commissioner of the
Treasury, Mr. Fox Secretary of State in his room, and Mr. Henry Legge
Chancellor of the Exchequer: The employments of Treasurer of the Navy, and
Secretary at War, supposed to be vacant by the promotion of Mr. Fox and
Mr. Legge, were to be kept 'in petto' till the dissolution of this
parliament, which will probably be next week, to avoid the expense and
trouble of unnecessary re-elections; but it was generally supposed that
Colonel Yorke, of The Hague, was to succeed Mr. Fox; and George
Greenville, Mr. Legge. This scheme, had it taken place, you are, I believe
aware, was more a temporary expedient, for securing the elections of the
new parliament, and forming it, at its first meeting, to the interests and
the inclinations of the Duke of Newcastle and the Chancellor, than a plan
of administration either intended or wished to be permanent. This scheme
was disturbed yesterday: Mr. Fox, who had sullenly accepted the seals the
day before, more sullenly refused them yesterday. His object was to be
First Commissioner of the Treasury, and Chancellor of the Exchequer, and
consequently to have a share in the election of the new parliament, and a
much greater in the management of it when chosen. This necessary
consequence of his view defeated it; and the Duke of Newcastle and the
Chancellor chose to kick him upstairs into the Secretaryship of State,
rather than trust him with either the election or the management of the
new parliament. In this, considering their respective situations, they
certainly acted wisely; but whether Mr. Fox has done so, or not, in
refusing the seals, is a point which I cannot determine. If he is, as I
presume he is, animated with revenge, and I believe would not be over
scrupulous in the means of gratifying it, I should have thought he could
have done it better, as Secretary of State, with constant admission into
the closet, than as a private man at the head of an opposition. But I see
all these things at too great a distance to be able to judge soundly of
them. The true springs and motives of political measures are confined
within a very narrow circle, and known to a very few; the good reasons
alleged are seldom the true ones: The public commonly judges, or rather
guesses, wrong, and I am now one of that public. I therefore recommend to
you a prudent Pyrrhonism in all matters of state, until you become one of
the wheels of them yourself, and consequently acquainted with the general
motion, at least, of the others; for as to all the minute and secret
springs, that contribute more or less to the whole machine, no man living
ever knows them all, not even he who has the principal direction of it. As
in the human body, there are innumerable little vessels and glands that
have a good deal to do, and yet escape the knowledge of the most skillful
anatomist; he will know more, indeed, than those who only see the exterior
of our bodies, but he will never know all. This bustle, and these changes
at court, far from having disturbed the quiet and security of your
election, have, if possible, rather confirmed them; for the Duke of
Newcastle (I must do him justice) has, in, the kindest manner imaginable
to you, wrote a letter to Mr. Eliot, to recommend to him the utmost care
of your election.</p>
<p>Though the plan of administration is thus unsettled, mine, for my travels
this summer, is finally settled; and I now communicate it to you that you
may form your own upon it. I propose being at Spa on the 10th or 12th of
May, and staying there till the 10th of July. As there will be no mortal
there during my stay, it would be both unpleasant and unprofitable to you
to be shut up tete-a-fete with me the whole time; I should therefore think
it best for you not to come to me there till the last week in June. In the
meantime, I suppose, that by the middle of April, you will think that you
have had enough of Manheim, Munich, or Ratisbon, and that district. Where
would you choose to go then? For I leave you absolutely your choice. Would
you go to Dresden for a month or six weeks? That is a good deal out of
your way, and I am not sure that Sir Charles will be there by that time.
Or would you rather take Bonn in your way, and pass the time till we meet
at The Hague? From Manheim you may have a great many good letters of
recommendation to the court of Bonn; which court, and it's Elector, in one
light or another, are worth your seeing.</p>
<p>From thence, your journey to The Hague will be but a short one; and you
would arrive there at that season of the year when The Hague is, in my
mind, the most agreeable, smiling scene in Europe; and from The Hague you
would have but three very easy days journey to me at Spa. Do as you like;
for, as I told you before, 'Ella e assolutamente padrone'. But lest you
should answer that you desire to be determined by me, I will eventually
tell you my opinion. I am rather inclined to the latter plan; I mean that
of your coming to Bonn, staying there according as you like it, and then
passing the remainder of your time, that is May and June, at The Hague.
Our connection and transactions with the Republic of the United Provinces
are such, that you cannot be too well acquainted with that constitution,
and with those people. You have established good acquaintances there, and
you have been 'fetoie' round by the foreign ministers; so that you will be
there 'en pais connu'. Moreover, you have not seen the Stadtholder, the
'Gouvernante', nor the court there, which 'a bon compte' should be seen.
Upon the whole, then, you cannot, in my opinion, pass the months of May
and June more agreeably, or more usefully, than at The Hague. But,
however, if you have any other, plan that you like better, pursue it: Only
let me know what you intend to do, and I shall most cheerfully agree to
it.</p>
<p>The parliament will be dissolved in about ten days, and the writs for the
election of the new one issued out immediately afterward; so that, by the
end of next month, you may depend upon being 'Membre de la chambre basse';
a title that sounds high in foreign countries, and perhaps higher than it
deserves. I hope you will add a better title to it in your own, I mean
that of a good speaker in parliament: you have, I am sure, all, the
materials necessary for it, if you will but put them together and adorn
them. I spoke in parliament the first month I was in it, and a month
before I was of age; and from the day I was elected, till the day that I
spoke. I am sure I thought nor dreamed of nothing but speaking. The first
time, to say the truth, I spoke very indifferently as to the matter; but
it passed tolerably, in favor of the spirit with which I uttered it, and
the words in which I had dressed it. I improved by degrees, till at last
it did tolerably well. The House, it must be owned, is always extremely
indulgent to the two or three first attempts of a young speaker; and if
they find any degree of common sense in what he says, they make great
allowances for his inexperience, and for the concern which they suppose
him to be under. I experienced that indulgence; for had I not been a young
member, I should certainly have been, as I own I deserved, reprimanded by
the House for some strong and indiscreet things that I said. Adieu! It is
indeed high time.</p>
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